制造业产能过剩抑制中国工业机器人市场增长

Manufacturing Overcapacity Constrains Industrial Robot Market Growth in China
制造业产能过剩抑制中国工业机器人市场增长

The Chinese market for industrial robots reached an estimated $1.3 billion in 2015. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20 percent, reaching $3.3 billion in 2020,according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight. China accounted for 13 percent of global industrial robot sales revenue in 2015, and is expected to comprise 25 percent in 2020.

全球领先的市场研究公司IHS统计表明，2015年中国工业机器人市场规模达13亿美元，而且将保持20%的年复合增长率，到2020年达33亿美元。2015年，中国的工业机器人销售收入占全球13%，预计这一数字到2020年将达25%。

“The much-needed regeneration of the manufacturing industry is a multi-billion dollar opportunity for the industrial robot market,” said Mark Watson, senior manager, manufacturing technology, IHS Technology. “Labor-intensive industries are increasingly automating production, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region where labor costs have risen quickly. Labor shortages have led to increasing wages, shortening the potential return on investment of industrial robots for many end-users.” 

“制造业迫切的复苏有望为工业机器人市场带来数十亿美元的发展机遇，”IHS制造科技部高级经理Mark Watson表示。“劳动密集型产业越来越倾向于自动化生产，尤其是在劳动力成本迅速攀升的亚太地区。劳动力短缺导致工资上涨，进而减少了很多终端用户的潜在投资收益。”

As capacity utilization begins to increase in 2018, industrial robot adoption will accelerate, as end-users start to optimize the technology in their factories and prices fall. Increasing labor costs, low commodity prices, and competition from other low-cost manufacturing regions, will promote further adoption of industrial robots. The effect of China’s 13th strategic plan is expected to positively impact growth in beginning in 2018, providing direct access to credit and tax relief, which will increase investment.

随着产能利用率的提升，终端用户对工厂的技术优化以及价格降低，到2018年，工业机器人的应用率将大大加速。而伴随逐渐增加的劳动力成本、低廉的商品价格，和与其他低制造成本地区之间的激烈竞争，工业机器人的应用将进一步扩大。在十三五规划下，由于获得直接信贷和税收减免，企业能加大机器人投资，从而有利于工业机器人市场的增长。

However, according to the latest research from the IHS Industrial Robots Intelligence Service, manufacturing overcapacity in many industries -- particularly heavy industries -- has the potential to limit robot market growth, particularly considering the poor short-term outlook of the Chinese economy. Local manufacturers are unlikely to spend considerable sums of money to install industrial robots, in light of excess capacity and a reduced need for productivity improvements. The alternative is to employ temporary workers, which is a flexible and a less capital-intensive process for many local manufacturers. However, labor shortages will continue in China, as the economy continues its shift to a service-based model.

然而，IHS工业机器人情报服务部的最新研究显示，中国短期经济前景不明，很多行业都出现产能过剩的情况，尤以重工业为甚，这将限制工业机器人市场增长。在这种情况下，当地制造商提高生产率的需求不大，因此不太可能投入大量资金安装工业机器人。相反，他们更愿意雇佣临时工人，因为这对他们来说更灵活、资本密集程度更低。但随着中国经济持续向服务型经济转变，劳动力短缺的问题将越来越明显。

“The need to improve flexibility and identify production efficiencies underpins industrial robot investment,” Watson said. “By installing robots that easily adjust to production levels and manufacturing processes, companies can save on labor costs and rely less on temporary unskilled workers.”

“制造商对生产灵活性和明确的生产效率的需求，支撑着对工业机器人的投资，”Watson说道。“采用机器人后，企业可以轻松地调整生产水平和制造流程，还可以节省人力成本，降低对临时工的依赖。”

Robot suppliers headquartered outside of China accounted for over 80 percent of 2015 industrial robot sales in China. These companies maintain a dominant presence in the market, because they have established relationships with leading end users and provide high-quality hardware, software and support services. 

2015年，外资品牌占据了中国工业机器人销量总额的80%以上。这些企业在中国的机器人市场占据着主导地位，因为他们已经与国内主要的终端用户建立了合作关系，提供高质量的软硬件及支持服务。

“Industrial robot market leaders in China invest substantially in research and development, facilitating the penetration of collaborative robots, deep machine learning, artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies, to ensure they lead the future of the industry,” Watson said. “As a result, local Chinese suppliers face a considerable challenge in securing market share.”

“中国工业机器人领导企业在研发上投入大量资金，用于研制拥有协作能力、深度学习能力的产品，提高其人工智能水平以及开发其他新兴技术，从而确保他们在行业竞争中占据有利位置，”Watson表示。“因此，中国本地供应商面临激烈的市场份额争夺战。”