2022年全球制造业产值将达44.5万亿美元

Global Manufacturing Production Value to Hit $44.5 Trillion in 2022
2022年全球制造业产值将达44.5万亿美元

New research from Interact Analysis projects that total manufacturing industry output will grow by 4% in 2022, then decline by $0.2 trillion in 2023, before rising again in 2024 and 2025.

来自Interact Analysis的新研究预测，2022年制造业总产值将增长4%，然后在2023年下降0.2万亿美元，但2024年和2025年再次上升。

The new research profiles Russia and Ukraine to ascertain stress points for MIO regions. Despite a GDP of over $1.7 trillion, Russia is considered an ‘emerging economy’ due to its small manufacturing base. However, since the largest companies in Russia are energy suppliers, the country is considered an ‘energy superpower’. Escalating fuel prices, which will impact Europe far more severely than the USA, are an obvious fallout from the conflict. Ukraine on the other hand had a GDP of just over $155 billion in 2020 according to the IMF, of which just over 30% was industrial production. Ukraine produces 70% of the world’s Neon–a key input in semiconductor production–and half of Ukrainian Neon is from Odessa and Mariupol. Since both these cities are key Russian targets, we expect one fallout of the conflict to be severe increases in the price of Neon. This will be a further big problem for the already beleaguered chip industry, which will turn to cheaper suppliers in China for relief.

这项新的研究对俄罗斯和乌克兰进行了剖析，以确定制造业产出地区的压力点。尽管国内生产总值超过1.7万亿美元，但由于其制造业基础较小，俄罗斯被视为“新兴经济体”。不过由于俄罗斯最大的公司是能源供应商，该国被视为“能源超级大国”。不断攀升的燃料价格是这场冲突的明显后果，它对欧洲的影响远比美国严重。另一方面，根据国际货币基金组织的数据，乌克兰2020年的国内生产总值刚刚超过1550亿美元，其中30%以上是工业生产。乌克兰生产世界70%的氖气——半导体生产的关键原料——乌克兰一半的氖气来自敖德萨和马里乌波尔。由于这两个城市都是俄罗斯的主要目标，我们预计冲突的一个后果是氖气价格的大幅上涨。对于已经陷入困境的芯片行业来说，这将是一个更大的问题，该行业将转向中国更廉价的供应商寻求帮助。
 
The Shanghai lockdowns have also had an undoubtable impact on the manufacturing industry, particularly because the city hosts a port that handles over 25% of all Chinese freight traffic. Shanghai is primarily a finance center, however if the Chinese government were to implement similar measures in one of their major manufacturing hubs, it could spell disaster for the global economy, since China accounts for 44.4% of total global production output.
 
上海的封锁也对制造业产生了毋庸置疑的影响，特别是因为该市拥有一个处理超过25%中国货运量的港口。上海主要是一个金融中心，但如果中国政府在其主要制造业中心之一实施类似措施，可能会给全球经济带来灾难，因为中国占全球总产量的44.4%。
 
Adrian Lloyd, CEO at Interact Analysis said, “Automotive is particularly worthy of comment at the moment. The sector was already facing severe pressures following the pandemic, and the Ukraine conflict has made matters far worse for the industry. One of these problems is the new pressures on semiconductors, which already hit the automotive sector hard. Another is that Russia provides the majority of the world’s palladium which is used to produce catalytic converters and is now inaccessible. And yet another problem is that Ukraine is a key manufacturer of components for Western Europe’s automotive industry, particularly wire harnesses, supplies of which are now intermittent. As a result of all this, we predict minimal growth for automotive of 2.8% in 2022.”

Interact Analysis首席执行官Adrian Lloyd表示：“汽车行业目前尤其值得一说。疫情之后，该行业已经面临严重压力，而乌克兰冲突让情况变得更加糟糕。其中一个问题是半导体面临的新压力，这已经对汽车行业造成了沉重打击。另一个原因是，俄罗斯提供了全球大部分用于生产催化转化器的钯，现在已经无法获得。还有一个问题是，乌克兰是西欧汽车工业零部件的主要生产国，尤其是线束，现在供应时断时续。因此，我们预测2022年汽车行业的最低增长率为2.8%。”