全球半导体制造业有望在2023年第四季度实现复苏

Global Semiconductor Manufacturing Industry Set for Q4 2023 Recovery
全球半导体制造业有望在2023年第四季度实现复苏

The global semiconductor manufacturing industry is on track for recovery in the fourth quarter of 2023, setting the stage for continued growth in 2024, SEMI announced in its Q3 2023 publication of the Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor (SMM) Report, prepared in partnership with TechInsights.

SEMI在与TechInsights合作编写的2023年第三季度半导体制造监测(SMM)报告中表示，全球半导体制造业有望在2023年第四季度复苏，为2024年的持续增长奠定基础。

Electronic sales are predicted to register a robust 22% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q4 2023, adding to 7% growth posted in Q3 2023. IC sales are expected to rise 4% sequentially after improving 7% in Q3 2023 as end demand improves and inventories normalize.

电子销售预计在2023年第四季度将有强劲的季度环比增长，继2023年第三季度的7%增长之后，再增加22%。IC销售预计将在2023年第四季度在改善的需求和库存正常化的背景下环比增长4%，在2023年第三季度已经实现了7%的增长。

Despite the improvement in electronics and IC sales, semiconductor manufacturing indicators remain soft. Fab utilization rates and capital expenditures continue to decline in the second half of this year. Overall, CapEx on non-memory is expected to outperform memory in 2023, but even spending in the non-memory segments has begun to weaken. Total capital expenditures in Q4 2023 are hovering at the levels seen in Q4 2020.

尽管电子和IC销售有所改善，但半导体制造指标仍然偏软。上半年工厂利用率和资本支出继续下降。总体而言，非内存领域的资本支出预计将在2023年超过内存，但即使在非内存领域，支出也已经开始减弱。2023年第四季度的总资本支出正处于2020年第四季度的水平。

While overall semiconductor capital equipment sales are declining in line with capital expenditures, the contraction in wafer fab equipment spending has turned out to be much shallower than expected this year. Furthermore, back-end equipment billings are projected to increase in Q4 2023.

虽然整体半导体资本设备销售与资本支出同比下降，但晶圆厂设备支出的收缩幅度远低于今年的预期。此外，预计2023年第四季度后端设备出货将增加。

“While semiconductor markets have seen year-over-year declines the last five quarters, year-over-year growth is expected to return in the fourth quarter of 2023 as production cuts have worked their way through the supply chain,” said Boris Metodiev, director of Market Analysis at TechInsights. “On the other hand, front-end equipment sales have been performing much better than the IC market, buoyed by government incentives and the filling of backlogs, strength expected to continue next year.”

TechInsights市场分析总监Boris Metodiev表示：“虽然半导体市场在过去的五个季度中出现同比下降，但预计2023年第四季度将实现同比增长，因为生产削减已经在供应链中传导开来。另一方面，前端设备销售表现得比IC市场好得多，得益于政府激励和订单积压的填充，这种强劲势头预计将在明年继续。”

“Despite low fab utilization rates and slowing capital expenditures in the second half of 2023, we expect back-end equipment billings to bottom in Q4 2023,” said Clark Tseng, senior director of Market Intelligence at SEMI. “This will mark an important turnaround for the chip manufacturing industry, signaling a recovery from the downturn with building momentum in 2024.”

“尽管上半年工厂利用率低下，下半年资本支出放缓，我们预计2023年第四季度后端设备的出货将触底，”SEMI市场情报高级总监Clark Tseng表示。“这将标志着芯片制造行业的重要转折，预示着从2024年开始的增长势头。”

The Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor (SMM) report provides end-to-end data on the worldwide semiconductor manufacturing industry. The report highlights key trends based on industry indicators including capital equipment, fab capacity, and semiconductor and electronics sales, and includes a capital equipment market forecast. The SMM report also contains two years of quarterly data and a one-quarter outlook for the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain including leading IDM, fabless, foundry, and OSAT companies.

《半导体制造监测报告》提供了全球半导体制造业的端到端数据。该报告根据包括资本设备、工厂产能、半导体和电子销售在内的行业指标突显了关键趋势，并包括资本设备市场的预测。SMM报告还包含两年的季度数据和半导体制造供应链的一个季度展望，其中包括主要的IDM、无厂半导体、代工厂和OSAT公司。